Obama Approval Ratings Rise Parallels Increasing Consumer Confidence

For the first time in more than a month and only the third time since last July, the Gallup Daily Poll reported an approval rating for President Barack Obama (49 percent) that was slightly higher than his disapproval rating (46 percent). In fact, this is an upward trend that began not in February but in late October (see chart).

The longer-term increase in Obama’s approval rating parallels five months of increases in several survey-based indexes of consumer confidence. Specifically:

• Gallup reported that its index of consumer confidence has risen for five consecutive months to its highest point since May 2011. The pollster also reports that 22 percent of Americans now say they are satisfied with the way things are going, higher than at any point since last spring.
• The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose to its highest level in a year this week.
• The Rasmussen Consumer Index stands at its highest level in over a year, although it’s down slightly from a peak earlier in the week.
• The Consumer Confidence Index of the Conference Board showed a slight decline in January, but its December and January measurements were still significantly higher than those of the three previous months.

Of course, the overall economic mood remains gloomy. On the Gallup surveys, for example, far more Americans still say that economic conditions nationwide are getting worse (58 percent) than say they’re getting better (36 percent) — though the positive number has more than doubled, from 18 percent, since the fall.

The main point, however, is that the rising tide of consumer optimism directly parallels the upward trend in Obama’s overall job approval rating. That result underscores the promise and the peril for the Obama administration in 2012. Continuing economic recovery will likely further boost his approval ratings and his chances in the November election.